Expected to Cushman & Wakefield in the middle of 2010, reversing the downward trend will rent for retail space in most European markets, but a steady increase in rents will have to wait probably until 2011, the latest report from Cushman & Wakefield for a European commercial space Key Drivers in Retail for 2010 show that in the coming 12 months on the rental market and commercial real estate investment market will be a relative improvement. In most countries, is projected to increase expansion of commercial networks and compression yields the best real estate.The report presents 12 key factors that will influence the development of the market in 2010, including economic outlook, the mood of consumers, demand from retailers and the supply of retail space. Analysis of the 25 countries in terms of these factors indicates a relatively strong condition of the whole European market. All the Nordic countries can boast good economic performance. Also, Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia, as well as studies prove, provide favorable conditions for development. The situation in Ireland and Spain does not look so optimistic and re-growth in these markets in 2010 is the least likely.
It is expected that one of the key drivers of the market in 2010 will be the relative affordability of commercial space economy. Rental rates for retail space in the past two years have fallen in most markets. Rents for the main shopping streets in Romania and Ukraine, for example, fell by more than 40%, and in nine other markets, after a period of hesitation, more than 10% (as of end September 2009). It seems, however, that in many markets, rents have already reached the lowest values and tenants, particularly major retail chains, desiring to exploit relatively favorable rents begin to submit the demand for retail space in prime locations.
Have improved the outlook for commercial real estate investment market. In the past 12-18 months, there were significant decreases in the value of the equity in the property sector. In this situation, a clear slowdown in the growth yield very optimistic. United Kingdom as the first important market after a period of rapid increases in Q2, note yield compression. Suit may follow other markets, but this is primarily dependent on the growth of rents, which may be restricted until 2011
Darren Yates, an analyst with research and analysis team in Europe, Cushman & Wakefield, said: "Year 2010 should be better than 2008 and 2009, although it should be expected that the process of recovery will be rather slow and uncertain. On the positive side are the low interest rates, encouraging businesses and consumers, which, combined with lower rents recorded in many countries, should help to boost activity in the market for rental and investment market.
Michael Rodda, a partner with the team for the capital markets, Cushman & Wakefield, dealing with cross-border investment in real estate business, said: "There are signs that the major European markets will follow the footsteps of Great Britain and in the first half of 2010, the capitalization rate will be significantly reduced investments in the best commercial real estate. Currently all the markets we deal with considerable increase in investor interest in the best commercial real estate and area of interest is still widening.
Wojciech Write, an Associate of the Capital Markets Group of the Polish branch of Cushman & Wakefield, said: "After almost total stagnation in the investment market in 2009, we expect in 2010 a substantial increase in interest from investors, the best shopping facilities. We are seeing the first signs that the price currently offered can become acceptable to property owners, which should lead to increased volume of transactions on the market. It also aims to influence the situation on the market rental of commercial space, where, after a difficult beginning of the year in which many tenants experienced financial difficulties, the current situation has stabilized, and many tenants again began seriously considering plans for further expansion.
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